Current Dynamics of Global Conflict in the Midst of a Pandemic Global conflict has entered a new phase since the COVID-19 pandemic affected almost all regions of the world. The emergence of this virus not only causes health problems, but also exacerbates existing tensions and creates new conflict dynamics. Locations such as the Middle East, Europe and Southeast Asia show how the pandemic is changing the way countries interact. In the Middle East, a systemic humanitarian crisis is beginning to emerge. The pandemic has worsened conditions in countries such as Syria and Yemen, where civil war has been going on for years. Limited access to health services and other basic needs means that various armed groups are trying to take advantage of the situation to strengthen their position. The perception that local governments are unable to respond to COVID-19 exacerbates people’s distrust of existing authorities. In Europe, tensions arise amidst the economic recovery process. Countries that receive fewer vaccines run the risk of failing to address social challenges due to public dissatisfaction. In this context, extremist and populist groups can take advantage of the situation to enlarge their support base. Concrete examples can be seen in France and Germany, where protests against lockdown and vaccination policies have become a means of mass mobilization for radical groups. Southeast Asia is also experiencing new conflicts emerging due to the impact of the pandemic. With limited resources, countries like Myanmar are experiencing further strain. The military coup in early 2021 and the response to pro-democracy protests coupled with the impact of COVID-19 made the situation even more complicated. Moreover, global activism regarding human rights has increasingly increased international pressure on the military junta. Changes in geopolitical dynamics can also be seen from the position of major countries. The United States and China are involved in an increasingly intense struggle for influence, where handling the pandemic has become one of the diplomatic weapons. The United States is seeking to strengthen relations with allied countries in the Indo-Pacific region to counter the dominance of China, which is using vaccine assistance as a tool to increase its influence in developing countries. The global community’s perception of multilateralism is also changing. Organizations such as the UN and WHO play an important role in handling the health crisis, but many countries see a lack of international coordination. This creates dissatisfaction which may trigger new conflicts later on. Inequitable access to vaccines represents another aspect of global conflict. Low- and middle-income countries feel neglected by richer countries who were the first to secure vaccine supplies. This reduces mutual trust between countries, potentially creating new conflicts both on a local and international scale. Social media also contributes to exacerbating tensions. Misinformation about the virus, vaccines and government policies can increase divisions in society. This could lead to massive demonstrations or even violence. With all these dynamics, the future of global conflict amidst the pandemic is very difficult to predict. Health, economic and political factors interact in complex ways, creating new challenges for world stability. Countries’ focus on post-pandemic recovery also requires a collaborative, not competitive, approach so that we can defuse existing conflicts and prevent the emergence of new ones.
